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The latest Yardi® Matrix U.S. multifamily market update illustrates good overall performance in the sector, with strong demand, steady new supply and consistent rent growth among the key characteristics.
Demand for multifamily housing, driven by rising divorce rates, an aging population, and young people delaying marriage and raising children, figures to remain strong for the foreseeable future. Much of the economic growth powering demand is occurring in Southern and Western regions. Meanwhile, national supply growth can be expected to remain in line with 2018 deliveries for the next few years.
The webinar update, conducted by Jeff Adler, Yardi Matrix vice president and general manager, and Jack Kern, director of research and publications, also debuted Yardi Matrix’s structured examination of political risk as an investment factor. The analysis weighs a metro’s affordability, philosophy toward affordability (e.g., rent control, zoning policies, permitting and entitlement requirements), urban policing/security, social mobility, tax burdens and unfunded pension liabilities.
In the analysis’ first iteration, San Francisco, Chicago and New York had the highest risk scores among 20 major metros while Salt Lake City, Raleigh-Durham, N.C., Indianapolis and Nashville, Tenn., had the lowest. The scorecard is a work in progress, and Adler invited Yardi Matrix users to offer ideas for improving it.
“Overall, the sector is performing well, but affordability remains a headwind,” Adler said. Public-sector responses such as rent control and zoning changes have been adopted in Oregon, California and New York City. Such approaches, however, are likely to touch off an exodus of investment capital and create disincentives for new investment, ultimately producing housing shortages.
Adler outlined market-based approaches that let supply respond to demand. They include coliving, which minimizes space needs; Airbnb, which monetizes unused time; and modular designs, which lower construction costs. Seattle, Dallas, Denver, Houston and Charlotte, N.C., have tried variations of these approaches as a response to affordability.
Get the full picture on this key real estate industry in the latest Yardi Matrix multifamily sector update.
