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The number of Americans who have moved since February 2020 wasn’t unusual compared to typical U.S. mobility trends, but there has been a distinct shift in where they are relocating, according to the latest Yardi Matrix multifamily webinar. In brief, big urban cities like New York, Chicago, San Francisco and Miami are out, while second tier markets and tech hubs like Austin, Kansas City, Sacramento and Boise are in.
“What we really have seen is a movement of people that is different from what we have seen in the past,” said Jeff Adler, vice president of Yardi Matrix, who delivered the analysis. A webinar on the commercial real estate market with valuable insight for that sector will take place on Wednesday, Nov. 11. You can register here.
The Nov. 4 multifamily session, which is now available to view on demand, summarized the trendlines for the apartment market nationwide. It has been relatively resilient despite the economic fallout caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, in the month of October, 94.6 percent of apartment households had paid rent as of Oct. 17, according to NMHC’s Rent Payment Tracker. However, small owners and managers of less than 50 units are suffering. These owners typically hold small balance loans, or SBLs.
“Because SBLs are typically used to finance apartments with less than 100 units, each resident that has trouble paying rent has a more significant impact on the property’s cash flow,” stated the Matrix summary.
The bulk of the 16 million Americans who have moved since February, though, are working from home and seeking a relocation situation that will be advantageous during the remaining months of the pandemic. They’re seeking out apartments or single-family homes where they have more space and eschewing the walkable urban lifestyle that had become so popular over the last decade. Midwest markets in particular have seen increased newcomers and accompanying upticks in rent and occupancy since March. And investors are rushing to get into the single family rental market, stated Adler.
“Tech hubs have so far really benefited from these migration patterns,” Adler said. “But that doesn’t mean we’ll see devaluation in the gateway markets, despite them being less popular destinations.”
The presentation included a first look at a Yardi Matrix analysis of which tech hubs are best projected to handle future growth, a great reason to check out the presentation deck. The webinar also included insight about long term economic recovery, hardest hit industries, job market expectations and more.
