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The need for additional affordable housing inventory is a foundational issue for the market, a new Yardi Matrix Research Bulletin on the affordable housing sector shows.
With an increasing number of households being designated as “cost burdened” across earning brackets, policymakers are pushing for more affordable stock, with an expected 69,600 units set to come online in 2024. A multi-year peak for the sector is anticipated with the 70,500 units projected for delivery in 2025. However, a looming slowdown in new inventory after 2025 could exacerbate the problem.
The primary challenge facing governments and renters alike is that market rate housing is not competitive with affordable housing in many of the country’s major metros, including markets such as Chicago, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Boston, Miami and Northern New Jersey.
In San Francisco (where the market-rate average is $3,028 and fully affordable average is $1,982) or Boston (where the market-rate average is $2,801 and fully affordable average is $1,819), there is a big gap between market-rate and fully affordable rents.
Conversely, at least 90 percent of market-rate stock is competitive with affordable properties in seven small markets, including South Dakota; Wichita, Kan.; Huntsville, Ala.; Amarillo, Texas; Des Moines, Iowa; Fayetteville, Ark.; and Omaha, Neb.
The Yardi Matrix study is based on a dataset containing over 3.3 million units in 20,000 fully affordable housing properties. These properties are owned and operated by both private sector entities and non-profit organizations.
The study compared the average maximum allowable rent of fully affordable units owned by private entities with the average advertised rent of market-rate units, broken into four levels of apartment quality. Review the levels and income required for affordability of each type in the report.
In addition to the competitiveness disparity, supply growth limitations and composition of total housing stock are additional affordable housing challenges. However, every market is unique and analysis of the issues on a broad scale comes with its own caveats and challenges.
“We believe that this analysis represents a valuable first step to compare the differences between market-rate and affordable rents and to understand why some markets are more successful at producing housing that meets the demands of households with limited incomes. Far from being the last word on the topic, we view this as a beginning of what we hope is an ongoing effort to study numbers that are now available through the new Matrix database,” said Paul Fiorilla, director of research for Yardi Matrix.
Yardi Matrix offers the industry’s most comprehensive market intelligence tool for investment professionals, equity investors, lenders and property managers who underwrite and manage investments in commercial real estate. Yardi Matrix covers multifamily, affordable housing, student housing, vacant land, industrial, office, retail and self storage property types. Email [email protected], call 480-663-1149 or visit yardimatrix.com to learn more.
