Yardi Matrix describes outlook for U.S. student housing

By Joel Nelson on January 6, 2026 in Matrix

Yardi Matrix provides information needed to originate, pre-underwrite and manage loans and investments in U.S. student housing markets. Tyson Huebner, director of research for Yardi Matrix, summarized the past quarter of research encompassing more than 1,000 colleges and universities in a recent webinar he hosted with Jeff Adler, vice president of Yardi Matrix. Here are the highlights.

Enrollment

Early fall enrollment data suggest 2025 was another strong year, with enrollment showing the second highest increase in the past decade. Although the student housing sector faces a gradual decline of high school graduates comprising the college-age population, this development “does not spell disaster for the industry and will affect every university differently,” Huebner said. Western states, for example, will see an increase in college age population over the next five years.

“Our enrollment forecast calls for solid enrollment growth over the next five years as the largest schools in the country continue to grow their market share,” Huebner said.

Supply

New deliveries dropped in 2025, a tailwind for rent growth, with about 30,000 beds projected per year for the year, compared with the 40,000 beds delivered just two years ago.

Several markets, such as the University of Kentucky, the University of Missouri and the University of Mississippi, have limited new supply and strong enrollment that enable them to continue outperforming.

“Supply as a percent of stock will remain near a 15-year low, which should provide some support for student housing fundamentals,” Huebner said.

Demand

Even with such headwinds as the expected decline in the number of high school graduates and international student enrollments, many leading student housing markets “are largely insulated from potential demand shock,” with a demographic underpinning that remains supportive of student housing performance, Huebner said.

On-campus housing

This option is becoming a bigger part of the supply picture, with universities sometimes partnering with private developers on products that often resemble off-campus communities more than traditional dorms.

Transactions

Transaction activity totaled about $6 billion as of mid-December 2025, with more sales likely before year-end, closing out a year that was strong for investment sales. The total will represent only about 75% of the 2024 total, reflecting the lower volume large portfolio trades this year. Just as student housing inventory is concentrated in the Southeast, student housing sales in that region make up a majority of this year’s sales volume.

The multifamily factor

Rent growth seems to be following the broader multifamily industry rent growth deceleration, particularly in urban campuses with plentiful new conventional multifamily units near campus that compete for student renters.

“For a lot of schools, rents have been impacted by both new student housing beds and competitive multifamily beds. Therefore, it’s important to understand the influence of the competitive multifamily family market around a university,” Huebner said.

Learn more about the dynamic state of U.S. student housing going into the new year.