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A new Yardi Matrix supply forecast projects a slight increase in U.S. property completions in 2025-27 than previously forecast. Completions include market rate, affordable, senior housing, single family and multifamily property types.
Matrix projects approximately 1.3 million units to be delivered in the three-year span, 2% more than last quarter’s forecast. This is due to a slightly larger-than-expected under-construction pipeline at the close of Q1 2025.
However, the overall under-construction pipeline has been in decline for 12 consecutive months. Completions for all property types peaked in 2024 and are forecast to decline through 2027. Market and partially affordable properties are predicted to drop by 37.6% in 2026 compared to 2024’s peak, with affordable and SFR properties declining by 24.3% and 26.7%, respectively, compared to their 2024 peak.
The relative differences in forecasted new supply underscore a longer-term trend, the bulletin reports. “Market and partially affordable properties will comprise a smaller share of the overall multifamily product mix. In 2019, these property types represented 84.2% of all units delivered. By 2026, their share is forecast to decline to 75.1%.
Long-term forecasting is complicated by uncertainty over national tariff policy. While higher tariff rates would increase import prices and construction costs and possibly slow economic growth, such an environment could prompt an easing of monetary policy and a tailwind for new multifamily development.
Read the full Matrix supply forecast.
