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Q1 2026: Supply forecast revised upward
Yardi Matrix updated its near-term forecast for U.S. self storage supply on the strength of Q4 2025 development data.
A larger-than-anticipated under-construction pipeline at the end of Q4, driven by a rebound in new development activity in the second half of the year, prompted Yardi Matrix to release a special bulletin announcing that “new supply will bottom at a higher level than previously anticipated.”
Construction, rental rate developments brighten projections
That in turn led Yardi Matrix to increase its estimate of self storage completions by 6% for 2026 and 4.8% for 2027, with 13.7% growth projected for 2028. New supply net rentable square feet will total 51.1 million in 2026, 44 million in 2027 and almost 38 million in 2028.
The revised outlook also incorporates an improved advertised rental rate outlook based on the 0.3% year-over-year increase recorded in December 2025.
In compiling their near-term completion estimates, Yardi Matrix researchers anticipate “further declines in national self storage supply from the post-pandemic cyclical high” and assume “steady but unspectacular economic growth in 2026 that supports moderate self storage demand growth,” the bulletin states.
Get the full story
Read about the factors driving the U.S. self storage market through 2031 in the Yardi Matrix Self Storage Supply Forecast Update for Q1 2026.
January 2026: Ongoing supply pressures hinder growth
A new Yardi Matrix national report portrays a U.S. self storage industry poised for recovery yet still feeling the effects of diminished demand and ongoing supply pressure.
The year-over-year rent growth recorded in December 2025 was half that in both October and November, with demand a primary constraint. With historically low home sales cutting demand and therefore revenues, the industry’s recovery from its weak fundamentals “will be gradual and uneven in 2026, favoring markets with low supply and improving housing conditions,” the report says.
Capital remains available
In contrast with market fundamentals, the availability of capital is not challenged, with both debt and equity plentiful for experienced investors and operators. However, “capital is increasingly selective and deal flow has been constrained by consistent loan extensions and a surge in bridge lending,” the report notes.
Pipeline holds steady
At about 54.3 million net rentable square feet, the under-construction pipeline remained unchanged between November and December and essentially flat year-over-year due to longer construction timelines and slower winter building activity.
Some metros, such as San Antonio, Philadelphia and New York City, have seen their under-construction supply decline over the past year. Meanwhile, several Sun Belt markets, including Phoenix, Las Vegas and Florida metros Miami, Tampa, and Sarasota-Cape Coral among them, have maintained or increased their under-construction supply, reflecting continued developer interest even as costs and underwriting challenges grow.
Start the year right with an in-depth look at self storage supply and demand drivers in the Yardi Matrix National Self Storage Report for January 2026.
