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U.S. multifamily supply up, rents down in revised Yardi Matrix forecasts

Key factors include elevated supply pipeline, modest household formation levels

MF rent+supply forecasts Oct2025

SANTA BARBARA, Calif., Oct. 23, 2025 – New Yardi® Matrix supply and rent forecasts project that an anticipated increase in the U.S. multifamily supply will reduce national asking rent growth by 2027.

While Yardi Matrix continues to anticipate new supply will decline through 2027, a larger-than-expected under-construction pipeline led the market intelligence source to increase its previous quarterly estimates for 2025 and 2026 by 6.8% and 2.5%, respectively.

Regarding 2027, with the 400,000 units starting construction in 2025 expected to be completed within 24 months, Yardi Matrix estimates that about 407,000 new units will be available, 12.8% more than the Q3 estimate.

Market-rate housing will account for 76.5% of the 2027 deliveries, followed by affordable housing (14.25%), single-family rentals (7.39%) and senior living (1.86%).

The Q4 supply forecast prompted Yardi Matrix to revise the 3% asking rent growth estimate for 2027, formulated in June, to 2%. Other factors driving this month’s revision include “a more modest trajectory of household formation as the labor market moderates and population growth returns to its pre-COVID decelerating trajectory,” Yardi Matrix says.

Learn more about construction starts, inflation, government deficits, employment and other forces affecting the multifamily market in two new rent and supply forecast bulletins.

Yardi Matrix offers the industry’s most comprehensive market intelligence tool for investment professionals, equity investors, lenders and property managers who underwrite and manage investments in commercial real estate. Yardi Matrix covers multifamily, single-family rentals/ build to rent, affordable housing, student housing, self storage, office, industrial, retail and vacant land property types. Email [email protected], call (480) 663-1149 or visit yardimatrix.com to learn more.

About Yardi

Yardi® develops industry-leading software for all types and sizes of real estate companies across the world. With more than 10,000 employees, Yardi is working with our clients to drive significant innovation in the real estate industry. For more information on how Yardi is Energized for Tomorrow, visit yardi.com.