8.42 percent drop in outlook extends declining optimism streak to three months � indicates further weakness expected in home sales
Vancouver, BC – October 20, 2010 – Real estate broker and agent outlook for the United States market declined by 8.42 percent in September, versus August, on a seasonally adjusted basis. Continued weakness in confidence sent the U.S. Real Estate Confidence Index (“RECI”) to its lowest level since Point2 (www.Point2.com) began to track real estate professionals’ future expectations for the real estate market, in June 2009, Point2 announced today.
The Index, which measures broker and agent confidence in the future of the real estate market, versus reporting on past performance, at a national level, dropped to 4.42 on the RECI scale of 1 – 10 (1 being “Bad” and 10 being “Good”).
The RECI’s only three month drop to date was recorded between December 2009 and February 2010.
Compared to September 2009, sentiment plunged by 23.50 percent, following another 17.18 percent Year-Over-Year decline in August.
Current Market Conditions, a key RECI indicator that captures survey respondent sentiment regarding the present market, dropped to 3.94 on the 1 – 10 scale. A 9.43 percent Month-Over-Month drop also reflects a 22.13 percent decline versus the same period last year.
For the Short Term (3 – 6 months), outlook also hit a new low, settling at 4.20 on the 1 – 10 Optimism/Pessimism scale, or a drop of 9.87 percent versus last month and 26.32 percent compared to September 2009.
The Long Term Optimism/Pessimism (12 – 18 months) barometer, the RECI’s third key variable, also dropped for the third consecutive month and recorded a new low. The component however remained above the 5.0 median on the 1 – 10 scale, with a reading of 5.24.
The average of all three variables makes up the RECI score for the month.
State by state RECI readings, respondent commentaries and national Index archives are available at www.realestateconfidenceindex.com.
1139 brokers and agents from the Point2 Agent (www.Point2Agent.com) user community completed the September survey.
RECI Survey Instrument and Methodology
The Real Estate Confidence Index (RECI) is a predictive, leading market indicator that reflects the market’s future performance expectations by and based on the opinions and sentiment of tens of thousands of licensed real estate brokers and agents across the United States, accounting for seasonality, on a scale of one to ten (1 being “bad” and 10 being “good”). The RECI tracks respondent sentiment for Current Market Conditions, the Short-Term (3 – 6 months) and Long-Term (12 – 18 months), on a ten-point scale (1 being “pessimistic” and 10 being “optimistic”). The median across all three time periods represents the Index measure for the month.
The RECI is open to the Point2 Agent membership and to tens of thousands of additional licensed real estate professionals across the nation at the beginning of each month. Respondents complete a simple, four question survey through third party survey solution providers, Survey Monkey. The data is tabulated electronically, median averages surfaced for quantitative questions, and qualitative feedback and respondent commentaries are captured and presented in Point2’s monthly RECI Summary at www.RealEstateConfidenceIndex.com.
Point2 (www.Point2.com), a Yardi Systems, Inc. (www.yardi.com) brand, provides inventory management and online marketing software solutions to the real estate and heavy equipment industries across 120 countries.
More information about Point2 can be found at www.Point2.com. For ongoing news about Point2, please visit www.point2.com/news.asp.
Additional Media Resources
– RECI Widget updated dynamically each month: www.realestateconfidenceindex.com
– Complete RECI respondent commentaries, by state: [email protected]
– High resolution graphics from the RECI website: [email protected]
For questions or to request an interview, please contact Roger Noujeim at [email protected] or at 888-955-7900.
Trade Media Contact: Joel Nelson 805.699-2040, ext. 1255