U.S. Affordable Housing Market Maintains Stability, Yardi Matrix Reports

Sector sidesteps distress seen in other markets but impact of federal policies and rising costs remains uncertain

SANTA BARBARA, CALIF., May 28, 2025 – A first-of-its-kind Yardi® Matrix study of loan maturities for U.S. affordable housing properties found that this sector has avoided some of the turbulence seen in its market-rate counterpart.

While potential distress in market-rate multifamily properties has increased in the wake of interest rate increases in 2022, it is less prevalent for affordable properties, defined as assets in which at least 90% of units are subject to limits on rents from government subsidies. This relative stability is due to favorable loan rates offered through government entities, longer loan terms that give owners time to fix properties with weak cash flow and low vacancy rates stemming from high demand.

The Yardi Matrix national report documents that about $10.5 billion of commercial mortgages backed by fully affordable properties will mature over the next three years, with another $31.7 coming due by 2035. Twenty-six thousand fully affordable properties with 3.5 million units in Yardi Matrix’s database serve as collateral for loans totaling $116.1 billion. Commercial banks account for 39.4% of those loans, while government entities and commercial mortgage-backed securities account for all but 3.4% of the remainder.

Ten of the 140 markets tracked by Yardi Matrix account for about 40% of the loan volume, led by San Francisco; Los Angeles; Washington, D.C.; Miami; and Seattle.

“Since property performance is relatively stable, [affordable housing loan] delinquencies are low and annual rollover remains manageable,” the report notes, although potential policy changes affecting renter subsidies and agency staffing “could be detrimental to loan servicing and property management,” as could higher property expenses and development costs.

Read the National Affordable Housing Report, which is the first of its kind to measure loan maturities purely for affordable properties.

Yardi Matrix offers the industry’s most comprehensive market intelligence tool for investment professionals, equity investors, lenders and property managers who underwrite and manage investments in commercial real estate. Yardi Matrix covers multifamily, affordable housing, student housing, vacant land, industrial, office, retail and self storage property types. Email [email protected], call (480) 663-1149 or visit yardimatrix.com to learn more.

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