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<\/p>\nThe increased distribution of COVID-19 vaccines offers hope that commercial air travel can rebound from a year that saw airline revenues fall by 60% from the previous year. The 1.36 million passengers who passed through U.S. airport security checkpoints on March 12 represented the highest volume since the 1.5 million recorded on March 15, 2020, according to the Transportation Security Administration, although the total was well below the 2-million-per-day average in March 2019.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe willingness to travel is still there,\u201d Arjan Meijer, chief of commercial aviation for Brazilian aircraft maker Embraer S.A., said in January. \u201cThere will be a push to go travel again as soon as we can.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cAlthough the next 6\u201312 months contain risks from pandemic uncertainty, historical trends suggest a faster rebound in passenger traffic, which could make the industry’s long-term prospects more bullish,\u201d notes Ravi Shanker, who covers the North American transportation industry for Morgan Stanley, citing pent-up demand, fewer airline competitors than in past global crises and a more stable fuel-price outlook as key factors.<\/p>\n
Safeguards in place<\/strong><\/p>\n When air travel reaches pre-pandemic levels, what will the industry\u2019s \u201cnew normal\u201d look like? First things first \u2013 is it prudent to even consider returning to that volume?<\/p>\n One expert thinks so. \u201cThe airline industry and airports have taken great steps to create the safest environment that they can,\u201d Becky Lutte, a professor of aviation at the University of Nebraska, Omaha, said in an article published March 12. \u201cIt\u2019s really all about passenger compliance \u2013 making sure everyone is following the rules and being aware of what\u2019s expected from us.\u201d<\/p>\n Those rules encompass much of the guidance that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has issued over the past year, include wearing a mask on airplanes and airport premises, maintaining social distancing, washing hands often, and following state and local recommendations.<\/p>\n Other conditions travelers are likely to encounter for the foreseeable future include less-than-full aircraft, fewer touchpoints during security and baggage check-ins, closures or limited capacity at restaurants, frequent flyer lounges and other comfort areas, temperature checks, protective gear for staff and flight crews, and heightened aircraft disinfectant measures.<\/p>\n \u201cSo, really it’s just following protocols and being smart about it. I think the vaccine is going to further enhance people\u2019s comfort level of getting out there and traveling again by air,\u201d Professor Lutte says.<\/p>\n \u201cThe actual scope of human behavior \u2013 the preference for travel? Nah, it\u2019s not going to change,\u201d adds Teal Group aerospace analyst Richard Aboulafia.<\/p>\n