{"id":20926,"date":"2018-12-19T05:00:01","date_gmt":"2018-12-19T13:00:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.yardi.com\/blog\/?p=20926"},"modified":"2026-02-22T15:35:16","modified_gmt":"2026-02-22T23:35:16","slug":"salvation-or-illusion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.yardi.com\/blog\/salvation-or-illusion\/","title":{"rendered":"Artificial Intelligence"},"content":{"rendered":"

Artificial intelligence\u2014defined in the Oxford English Living Dictionary as \u201cthe theory and development of computer systems able to perform tasks normally requiring human intelligence\u201d\u2014is booming. Last year, technology market intelligence p<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Gary Smith<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

rovider International Data Corporation forecasted a 54.4% compound annual growth rate of corporate global spending on cognitive and AI solutions through 2020, when AI-related revenues will top $46 billion. In 2016, global financial advisor UBS said, \u201cWe expect AI\u2019s industry growth will start to explode and its impact on business and society will begin to emerge\u201d by the end of the decade, pointing to a future where \u201cAI-powered machines and software will likely start to untether from human supervision, embarking on their fateful path as sentient beings.\u201d AI proponents tout such potential benefits as efficiency, elimination of manual tasks and new solutions for social problems.<\/em><\/p>\n

But not everybody is on the wagon. In 2015, for example, a host of business and academic leaders including Elon Musk, Steve Wozniak and the late Stephen Hawking signed an open letter urging restraint in the development and application of AI. \u201cIt is important to research how to reap its benefits while avoiding potential pitfalls,\u201d the signatories said.<\/em><\/p>\n

Gary Smith, a professor of economics at Pomona College<\/a> in Claremont, Calif., and author of the just-published book, \u201cThe AI Delusion,\u201d also advises caution. Professor Smith offered his thoughts in an interview with <\/em>The Balance Sheet.<\/em><\/p>\n

Q: Professor Smith, what do you see as the biggest misconception about artificial intelligence?<\/strong><\/p>\n

A: That computers are smarter than humans. AI algorithms excel at narrowly defined tasks that have clear goals, such as tightening bolts, checkmating a chess opponent or reducing a building\u2019s energy consumption. These tasks can be very useful, but AI doesn\u2019t \u201cthink\u201d in any real sense of the word.<\/p>\n

Q: Why do computers have trouble moving outside those narrowly defined tasks?<\/strong><\/p>\n

A: Because it\u2019s so difficult to mimic how the human brain understands the world. A revealing example of AI\u2019s limitations is the Winograd Schema Challenge, a test of machine intelligence: \u201cWhat does \u2018it\u2019 refer to in this sentence: I can\u2019t cut down that tree with that axe; it is too thick [or small]\u2019. Current AI programs don\u2019t know because they don\u2019t know what the words really mean. As one prominent AI researcher said, how can machines take over the world when they can\u2019t even figure out what \u201cit\u201d refers to in a sentence?<\/p>\n

Q: But haven\u2019t AI systems mastered some incredibly complex tasks, such as the Asian board game Go?<\/strong><\/p>\n

A: A freakish, superhuman skill at board games is great for publicity but has little to do with making real-world decisions that require critical thinking. AI is very good at data mining, but data mining is fundamentally flawed because we think that patterns are unusual and therefore meaningful. In Big Data, patterns are inevitable and therefore meaningless. The bigger the data, the more likely it is that a discovered pattern is meaningless.<\/p>\n

Q: What do you regard as misapplications of AI?<\/strong><\/p>\n

A:Anything that\u2019s based solely on identifying patterns without considering whether the patterns make sense, such as evaluating job applications and loan applications and picking stocks. Also, courts all over the U.S are using computer models to make bail, prison-sentence and parole decisions based on statistical patterns that may be coincidental but can\u2019t be evaluated because they\u2019re hidden in black boxes.<\/p>\n

Q: What\u2019s the thesis of your book, \u201cThe AI Delusion\u201d?<\/strong><\/p>\n

A: The elevator pitch is that the real danger today isn\u2019t that computers are smarter than us, but that we think computers are smarter than us, and consequently we trust them to make important decisions for us.<\/p>\n

Q: Do you think AI could reach the point that it could be trusted to make important decisions?<\/strong><\/p>\n

A: Yes, but it\u2019s a long way off because computer algorithms would first have to truly understand the world and what words means, plus have the capacity for common sense, wisdom and critical thinking.<\/p>\n

Q:\u00a0 And they don\u2019t?<\/strong><\/p>\n

A: Correct. Many people are trying to develop algorithms that have these qualities, but it\u2019s very difficult. As of now, computer programs don\u2019t possess anything resembling human wisdom and common sense. Douglas Hofstadter, one of the original AI giants, said, \u201cThere is absolutely no fundamental philosophical reason that machines could not, in principle, someday think, be creative, be funny, be nostalgic, be excited, be frightened, be ecstatic, be resigned, be filled with hope . . . But all that will come about only when machines are just as alive and just as filled with ideas, emotions and experiences as human beings are. And that is not around the corner. Indeed, I believe that it is still extremely far away.\u201d<\/p>\n

I agree. At this point in the development of AI, we should be very skeptical of turning important decisions to computers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Artificial intelligence\u2014defined in the Oxford English Living Dictionary as \u201cthe theory and development of computer systems able to perform tasks normally requiring human intelligence\u201d\u2014is booming. Last year, technology market intelligence p rovider International Data Corporation forecasted a 54.4% compound annual growth rate of corporate global spending on cognitive and AI solutions through 2020, when AI-related […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":610,"featured_media":20927,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_s2mail":"yes","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3355,6],"tags":[1329,1800,76],"class_list":["post-20926","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-artificial-intelligence","category-technology","tag-ai","tag-artificial-intelligence","tag-technology-2"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nYardi Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Artificial intelligence\u2014defined in the Oxford English Living Dictionary as \u201cthe theory and development of computer systems able to perform tasks normally\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Artificial Intelligence\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Artificial intelligence\u2014defined in the Oxford English Living Dictionary as \u201cthe theory and development of computer systems able to perform tasks normally\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.yardi.com\/blog\/salvation-or-illusion\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Yardi Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-12-19T13:00:01+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-02-22T23:35:16+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.yardi.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/15\/2018\/09\/Gary-Smith.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"231\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"271\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Joel Nelson\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Joel Nelson\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.yardi.com\/blog\/salvation-or-illusion\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.yardi.com\/blog\/salvation-or-illusion\/\",\"name\":\"Artificial Intelligence - 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